Jamaican Economy Experiences Strong Growth in Q1 2025
Kingston, Jamaica – The Jamaican economy demonstrated solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, expanding by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This positive trend underscores the resilience of the Jamaican economy and points to a favorable outlook for the remainder of the year. The growth was primarily fueled by increased output across both the Goods-Producing and Services industries, reflecting a broad-based recovery across various sectors.
Sectoral Performance: Goods-Producing and Services Industries Lead the Way
The Goods-Producing sector experienced robust expansion, growing by 2.0%. This growth was driven by notable performances in several key industries. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing industry led the way with a significant 3.1% increase, indicating a strong performance in the agricultural sector. Manufacturing also contributed positively, growing by 1.7%. The Construction industry saw a healthy rise of 1.4%, reflecting ongoing infrastructure development and investment. Additionally, the Mining and Quarrying sector expanded by 0.7%, suggesting a continued demand for the island’s natural resources.
The Services sector also played a crucial role in the overall economic growth, expanding by 0.8%. Growth was observed in most industries within this sector. However, some industries experienced declines. Notable among these were Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery, and Real Estate and Business Activities. Despite these isolated contractions, the overall performance of the Services sector remained positive.
Methodological Updates and Economic Framework
Jamaica’s economic assessments are conducted within a globally recognized framework. The country has adopted the United Nations’ 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), ensuring that its economic reporting aligns with international standards. Furthermore, the Jamaica Industrial Classification 2016 (JIC 2016) is utilized, providing a comprehensive structure for classifying economic activities.
STATIN also reported that the implementation of methodological updates resulted in a significant adjustment to historical GDP levels. Specifically, there was an average increase of 7.8% in historical GDP levels between 2015 and 2023, underscoring the importance of consistent and updated methodologies in accurate economic measurement.
Positive Outlook and Projections by the Bank of Jamaica
The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects that the positive economic trend will continue throughout the fiscal year 2025/26. Preliminary indicators suggest that growth will persist in the June 2025 quarter. This optimistic outlook is supported by the expected performance of the tourism sector and related services, key drivers of the Jamaican economy. Real GDP is forecasted to recover within the range of 1.0 to 3.0% for the full fiscal year, reflecting a moderate to strong growth trajectory.
The BOJ expects this positive trend to extend into the subsequent fiscal year, FY2026/27, indicating a sustained period of economic expansion. This long-term positive forecast provides confidence to investors and stakeholders, fostering an environment conducive to continued economic development.
In conclusion, the Jamaican economy’s performance in the first quarter of 2025 reflects a robust recovery and demonstrates strong growth across multiple sectors. Supported by a favorable outlook from the Bank of Jamaica and strategic methodological updates, the Jamaican economy appears well-positioned for sustained expansion in the coming years.