Tropical Storm Melissa is rapidly strengthening over the warm Caribbean Sea and is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday, posing a significant threat of heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and landslides to Jamaica and Haiti. Forecasters warn of potential major hurricane status early next week as the storm meanders unpredictday over the region.
Storm Update and Forecast
As of Wednesday, October 22, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa was located approximately 320 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 315 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm was moving west at a slow pace of around 2 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. While its current speed is slow, Melissa is expected to gradually intensify over the next few days, with forecasters predicting it will become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. The warm ocean waters in the Caribbean are providing ample fuel for this intensification, with some models suggesting Melissa could reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) by Sunday or early next week.
Impact on Jamaica
Jamaica is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch. This indicates that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours, with conditions potentially beginning late Thursday or Friday. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica, led by Director Evan Thompson, anticipates rainfall starting on Thursday, with gusty winds and possible flash flooding, particularly affecting eastern and southern parishes. Eastern Jamaica could see between 8 to 12 inches of rain by Saturday, raising concerns for landslides, especially in mountainous areas.
Broader Regional Impact
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince, indicating that hurricane conditions are possible starting late Thursday. The storm is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with higher totals possible, significantly increasing the risk of dangerous flooding and mudslides. While the storm’s path remains uncertain due to weak steering currents, models show it could also threaten Cuba or turn westward towards Central America, potentially impacting the Cayman Islands. At present, no direct impacts are expected on the mainland United States, though the U.S. East Coast is advised to remain vigilant for potential long-term effects.
Government and Agency Response
Jamaican authorities are taking significant preparatory actions. Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, Matthew Samuda, is urging residents to prepare, emphasizing an “all-of-government response” and assuring citizens of timely updates from the Meteorological Service. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is on full alert, coordinating preparedness activities.
Minister of Local Government and Community Development, Desmond McKenzie, confirmed that Jamaica’s 881 emergency shelters have been inspected, with supervisors and managers on standby. Relief supplies have been pre-positioned across the island, and emergency equipment is being deployed to high-risk areas, including specific communities like Rocky Point in Clarendon and Taylor Land in eastern Jamaica. Concerns are also noted for areas such as Berger Gully and McGregor Gully, with sandbags being installed in East Kingston. The Ministry of Labour and Social Security, led by Pearnel Charles Jr., has also activated its disaster readiness protocols, ensuring shelter management and relief distribution are prepared. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica is actively monitoring Melissa, utilizing its Doppler Radar System.
Context and Outlook
Tropical Storm Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, a season that has seen the Caribbean remain relatively quiet until now, allowing for unusually warm sea surface temperatures conducive to storm development. The storm’s slow movement over these warm waters is a primary factor in its potential for rapid intensification and prolonged impacts. Forecasters stress the significant uncertainty in the storm’s track and intensity, advising all residents in the affected regions to closely monitor official news and advisories from their national meteorological services.
Call for Preparedness
As Tropical Storm Melissa continues to churn in the Caribbean, officials are emphasizing preparation over panic. With the storm expected to bring significant rainfall and potentially hurricane-force winds to the region, residents in Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic are urged to stay tuned to weather bulletins and adhere to instructions from authorities. The coming days will be critical in determining the full extent of Melissa’s impact on these vulnerable islands.