S&P Global Ratings has revised the outlook on the long-term issuer credit ratings for two prominent Jamaican financial entities, National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. (NCBJ) and its parent company, NCB Financial Group Ltd. (NCBFG), to positive from stable. This significant development, announced on October 6, 2025, reflects a broader improvement in Jamaica’s banking industry operating conditions and a recent upgrade of the country’s sovereign credit rating. This news marks a positive step for Jamaica’s financial sector.
Enhanced Banking Environment Fuels Positive Outlook
The primary driver behind S&P’s revised outlook is the improved economic risk trend within Jamaica’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), which has been moved to positive from stable. This recalibration signifies a more stable operating environment for financial institutions in Jamaica. S&P noted that credit risks within the Jamaican banking sector have remained manageable, even in the face of external shocks. The agency’s assessment indicates that improving domestic economic fundamentals are laying the groundwork for more favourable business conditions for banks moving forward.
The revision also involved an upward adjustment of Jamaica’s industry risk score within the BICRA framework to ‘7’ from ‘8’. This indicates a reduced level of inherent risk within the country’s banking sector. S&P anticipates that further economic momentum could potentially lead to an upward revision of the Jamaica BICRA anchor in the next six to 18 months.
Sovereign Upgrade Lends Strength
Adding to the positive sentiment, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Jamaica’s long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘ on September 25, 2025. This upgrade was attributed to a strong consensus regarding the importance of sustainable public finances, evidenced by consistent primary fiscal surpluses in recent years. The agency highlighted Jamaica’s adherence to its debt reduction targets and its robust institutional and policy frameworks as key factors.
Stronger public finances directly benefit the banking system by enhancing the government’s capacity to provide support during times of distress. This sovereign strength provides a more stable backdrop for the operations and ratings of domestic financial institutions like NCBJ and NCBFG.
Implications for NCBJ and NCBFG
The positive outlook on NCBJ and NCBFG suggests a heightened probability of a credit rating upgrade for both entities within the next six to 18 months. Such an upgrade would be contingent on continued positive economic momentum translating into sustained credit fundamentals and further improvements in the operating conditions for Jamaica’s banking industry, potentially leading to a revised BICRA anchor. S&P affirmed the existing ratings of ‘BB-/B’ for NCBJ and ‘B-/B’ for NCBFG, signalling their current creditworthiness remains stable.
NCBJ, as Jamaica’s largest bank, is recognized for its strong market position, diversified business model, and consistent revenue generation, with a notable focus on fostering digital platform adoption. NCB Financial Group benefits from geographic diversification across various markets, contributing to stable group performance and regional strength. However, S&P also noted some risks, including NCBJ’s nonperforming loan levels being higher than pre-pandemic figures and certain riskier loans held by NCBFG’s Bermuda subsidiary. The agency cautioned that a stall in Jamaica’s economic progress could lead to the positive outlook being revised back to stable.
A Promising Trajectory for Jamaica’s Business Sector
This series of positive rating actions underscores a period of strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals and improved governance in Jamaica. The robust fiscal discipline and commitment to sustainable public finances have created a more favourable environment not only for the sovereign but also for its key financial institutions. As Jamaica continues on its path of economic recovery and growth, the revised outlook for NCBJ and NCBFG signals confidence in the resilience and future prospects of the nation’s banking sector, presenting a positive narrative for business news in the region.