Kingston, Jamaica – The Jamaican economy demonstrated robust growth during the first quarter of 2025, expanding by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This positive performance signals continued economic recovery and is expected to be sustained throughout the fiscal year, according to projections from the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). This expansion, driven by contributions from both goods-producing and services industries, offers a positive outlook for the island nation.
Sectoral Contributions to Growth
The economic growth in Q1 2025 was the result of increases in both the goods-producing and services sectors, which grew by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively. This broad-based improvement highlights the diverse nature of Jamaica’s economy and its ability to recover and adapt.
Within the goods-producing sector, several industries experienced notable gains. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing industry led the way with a strong increase of 3.1%. This indicates a healthy agricultural sector, vital for both domestic consumption and exports. The manufacturing sector also contributed positively, growing by 1.7%, suggesting an upturn in local production and potential for increased exports. Construction activity saw an increase of 1.4%, reflecting ongoing investments in infrastructure and development across the island. The Mining and Quarrying sector also contributed to the overall growth, increasing by 0.7%.
The services sector, though experiencing more modest growth overall, saw increases in most industries. The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is anticipating that tourism and related services will drive further growth in the June 2025 quarter. However, some areas within services did face challenges. Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery, and Real Estate and Business Activities experienced declines during the quarter. These declines suggest potential areas for policy intervention and focus on improving their performance.
Methodological Updates and GDP Revision
STATIN’s methodological updates have led to a reassessment of historical GDP levels. These revisions, which occurred between 2015 and 2023, resulted in an average increase of 7.8% in the historical GDP data. This adjustment provides a more accurate baseline for assessing current economic performance and for future forecasting. The revisions emphasize the importance of continuous data refinement and its impact on understanding economic trends.
Future Outlook and Projections
The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects that the Jamaican economy will continue its upward trajectory throughout the fiscal year 2025/26. This positive outlook is underpinned by anticipated stronger activity in the tourism and related services sectors during the June 2025 quarter. The BOJ forecasts real GDP to recover within a range of 1.0% to 3.0% for the full fiscal year. This range reflects the inherent uncertainties in economic forecasting while demonstrating a commitment to proactive monetary policy to maintain the momentum.